India launches Agni-II missile
Lt.-Gen Sardar F.S. Lodi
On Sunday morning April 11, 1999 India launched its new long-range ballistic missile Agni-II from a new launch site in its eastern state of Orissa, in complete defiance and utter disregard of world opinion and the sensitivities of its neighbours. The Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee said the advanced version of Agni-II, India's Intermediate Range Ballistic Missile which was test-fired on April 11, was developed as a defensive step and was not meant for aggression against any country. One is reminded of a similar statement of another Prime Minister of India in 1974 after India's first nuclear explosion when she called it a "peaceful nuclear explosion". Words are important to lull a complacent world.
India's Information Minister, Mr Pramod Mahajan announcing the launch of Agni-II at 10 am on April 11, 13 minutes after lift-off called it an 'historic feat'. It should be noted that the test was made less than a year after India's surprise nuclear tests in May 1998, which led to a similar response from Pakistan. Mr Mahajan said: "It was a perfect text-book launch". He further described it as the "golden efforts" of India's 13-month old Hindu nationalist BJP-led coalition government. Was it merely political rhetoric generated from political compulsion on the part of a tottering regime which eventually fell owing to the in-fighting and controversial policies, pursued by its Defence Minister?
According to by Mr Mahajan, Agni-II IRBM (Intermediate range ballistic missile) has a range of 2,000 kilometres. Defence experts are, however, of the opinion that the missile is designed for a distance of 2500 kilometres. It is 20 metres long and weighs 16 tonnes. It would carry "special weapons payload", that is, nuclear. It is a three-stage solid-fuel missile having latest state-of-the art navigation and guidance control systems on board. Agni-I which was test-fired three times can carry a one megaton nuclear warhead to a distance of 1500 km. It is, therefore, presumed that Agni-II would also have a similar payload. A senior Indian official said that Agni-II had given India a "strategic defence capability". This is yet another Indian play on words. Acquisition of a weapons system which is capable of delivering a nuclear payload 2,500 kms away certainly shows aggressive intent on the part of India.
It is not understood why India found it essential to test-fire a long-range ballistic missile at this particular point in time, when peace talks are underway between India and Pakistan. Especially when there is also present a political will on both sides of the Indo-Pak border for the two countries to move from a permanent state of confrontation and strife to the negotiating table for the resolution of disputes in a peaceful manner. The test-firing of Agni-II would certainly cloud the present peace negotiations as the Pakistani defence planners are bound to pause and ponder over the defence consequences of India's latest action. They will also consider India's recent acquisition of modern arms from Russia worth about US 1.5 billion dollars, of significance. At a time when India's small neighbours pose no threat to her security or territorial integrity, India is enhancing her defence and attack capability, particularly the latter. As the Indian Prime Minister said: "Agni is proof of our determination to strengthen our national security so comprehensively that we can defend ourselves." The question is whether India is threatened by any of her neighbours. It should be kept in mind that it is internationally acknowledged that India initiated a border conflict with China in December 1962 and got a good drubbing. The Indian Prime Minister went on to say that ""Agni is a symbol of that resurgent India which is able to say: 'Yes, we will stand on our own feet'. As in the case with the nuclear tests at Pokhran in May last year, the test-firing of Agni missile is also a purely defensive step."
Acquisition of nuclear weapons and sophisticated missiles to deliver them is certainly an intimidating sign and a "symbol of a resurgent India" which wishes to dominate the South Asian region and beyond, north east to the middle east and to the countries of South Asia. It would also offer its services to block China and keep the Muslim world in check. Both these regions seem to be agitating the minds and occupying the thoughts of some decision-makers in the west. Others seem to be understanding India's end-game which is Indian hegemony in its self-perceived area of influence and domination of the Indian Ocean to the disadvantage of all peace-loving nations. India's long-term intentions and objectives are certainly far from honourable, and, if pursued further, will certainly lead to confrontation and strife in the region, which prudent minds believe, can and should be avoided.
What are the defence and security implications in the region of India's Agni-II ballistic missile? It certainly enhances India's military capability by adding to its offensive reach, by a weapon system that is more reliable, has a greater range and is less vulnerable being comparatively more mobile than the previous one. It employes solid-state fuel compared to the solid-cum-liquid combination of Agni-I. The preparation time for launching the new missile has, therefore, been curtailed. The missile is capable of reaching every part of Pakistan after being launched from beyond the vulnerable distance from the Indo-Pak border. This is a great advantage to New Delhi.
The Indian Defence Minister, Mr George Fernandes described the launch of Agni-II as a great day for India, which it certainly was. Mr Fernandes went on to say: "We have reached a point of operationalisation of Agni as a weapon system. Today's launch demonstrates our mobile launch capability. We can move the missile to rugged areas with a very compact system". Why was all this effort necessary one may ask? In the opinion of India's Defence Minister: "We have reached a point from where no one from anywhere will threaten us any more." The fact, however, remains that no country has threatened India during the past 52 years of its existence. It is India, on the other hand, which has threatened the security of neighbouring nations and has used force as an instrument of her foreign policy against all her neighbours, including China. India's test-launch of Agni-II missile has certainly sent a wrong message to the government and people of Pakistan. Instead of employing confidence building measures (CBMs) in South Asia, India blasted the missile from its launch site on the Orissa coast -- the largest confidence destroying measure, to date. It will take some time for the dust to settle before any meaningful talks can take place between India and Pakistan. The slender thread has broken anew and must be repaired.
The moot question now remains as to what action should be taken by the Pakistan government. It would seem appropriate for Islamabad to test a solid-fuel missile of its own. The Shaheen-I ballistic missile displayed on March 23 parade has been ready for sometime but its launch was held up by the government to prevent any 'rocking of the boat' while peace-talks with India were underway. This has been the right time to test the missile. Shaheen-I is a single-stage solid fuel missile with state-of-the-art technology, and a terminal-guided system. It has an estimated range of 750km and can carry a payload of 1000 kilograms. It can hit targets with 100 per cent accuracy. Another option would be to test-fire Ghauri-II missile, with an enhanced range. There is no need whatsoever for Pakistan to enter into a missile race with India. In fact, it is militarily not essential to do so as long as a certain level of a viable deterrent is maintained. This had already been achieved with the minimum of cost. It has now to be updated with a little effort, whenever the need arises.
The peace-talks between India and Pakistan must continue now under the umbrella of a nuclear deterrent. As the Prime Minister of Pakistan has repeatedly stressed on many occasions, at home and abroad, Pakistan wants to end confrontation with India and seek the path of peace and amity. But for it to be lasting, it must be peace with honour, based on the foundation of sovereign equality of nations.
In the end it is hoped that India and the hawks in its establishment and defence forces will desist from any further acts which may eventually totally sabotage the peace-talks and be the cause of their final derailment.